Ongoing U.S.-mediated efforts produced a temporary three-day ceasefire in May 2026 tied to Victory Day commemorations, yet Russian officials immediately described any comprehensive settlement as “a very long way off” due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Ukrainian leaders reported violations of the pause and reiterated demands for robust protections against future incursions. Multiple rounds of talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi since early 2026 have yielded only incremental prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures without bridging core positions. Traders therefore assign a 74 percent probability that no formal peace agreement will be signed before the end of 2026, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and absence of breakthroughs on foundational issues.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$606,354 Vol.
$606,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$606,354 Vol.
$606,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing U.S.-mediated efforts produced a temporary three-day ceasefire in May 2026 tied to Victory Day commemorations, yet Russian officials immediately described any comprehensive settlement as “a very long way off” due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Ukrainian leaders reported violations of the pause and reiterated demands for robust protections against future incursions. Multiple rounds of talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi since early 2026 have yielded only incremental prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures without bridging core positions. Traders therefore assign a 74 percent probability that no formal peace agreement will be signed before the end of 2026, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and absence of breakthroughs on foundational issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$606,354Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing U.S.-mediated efforts produced a temporary three-day ceasefire in May 2026 tied to Victory Day commemorations, yet Russian officials immediately described any comprehensive settlement as “a very long way off” due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Ukrainian leaders reported violations of the pause and reiterated demands for robust protections against future incursions. Multiple rounds of talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi since early 2026 have yielded only incremental prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures without bridging core positions. Traders therefore assign a 74 percent probability that no formal peace agreement will be signed before the end of 2026, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and absence of breakthroughs on foundational issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$606,354Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-mediated efforts produced a temporary three-day ceasefire in May 2026 tied to Victory Day commemorations, yet Russian officials immediately described any comprehensive settlement as “a very long way off” due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Ukrainian leaders reported violations of the pause and reiterated demands for robust protections against future incursions. Multiple rounds of talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi since early 2026 have yielded only incremental prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures without bridging core positions. Traders therefore assign a 74 percent probability that no formal peace agreement will be signed before the end of 2026, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and absence of breakthroughs on foundational issues.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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