Russian forces have concentrated around 120 assault groups and approximately 150,000 troops from the 58th Combined Arms Army and supporting airborne units near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of early September 2026. Ukrainian commanders report the situation remains difficult but under control, with the line of contact unchanged and Orikhiv itself held by Ukrainian forces despite sporadic infiltration attempts. Russian operations in the adjacent Hulyaipole direction have produced incremental gains since spring, yet efforts to link axes toward Orikhiv have not yielded major breakthroughs. Ukrainian units continue repelling localized attacks, including recent probes near Chervona Krynytsia. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect this ongoing force buildup against entrenched Ukrainian defenses and the absence of rapid territorial shifts in the sector.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
$239,414 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
4%
December 31
41%
$239,414 Vol.
September 30
$120,825 Vol.
4%
December 31
$118,590 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated around 120 assault groups and approximately 150,000 troops from the 58th Combined Arms Army and supporting airborne units near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of early September 2026. Ukrainian commanders report the situation remains difficult but under control, with the line of contact unchanged and Orikhiv itself held by Ukrainian forces despite sporadic infiltration attempts. Russian operations in the adjacent Hulyaipole direction have produced incremental gains since spring, yet efforts to link axes toward Orikhiv have not yielded major breakthroughs. Ukrainian units continue repelling localized attacks, including recent probes near Chervona Krynytsia. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect this ongoing force buildup against entrenched Ukrainian defenses and the absence of rapid territorial shifts in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$239,414Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have concentrated around 120 assault groups and approximately 150,000 troops from the 58th Combined Arms Army and supporting airborne units near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of early September 2026. Ukrainian commanders report the situation remains difficult but under control, with the line of contact unchanged and Orikhiv itself held by Ukrainian forces despite sporadic infiltration attempts. Russian operations in the adjacent Hulyaipole direction have produced incremental gains since spring, yet efforts to link axes toward Orikhiv have not yielded major breakthroughs. Ukrainian units continue repelling localized attacks, including recent probes near Chervona Krynytsia. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect this ongoing force buildup against entrenched Ukrainian defenses and the absence of rapid territorial shifts in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$239,414Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have concentrated around 120 assault groups and approximately 150,000 troops from the 58th Combined Arms Army and supporting airborne units near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of early September 2026. Ukrainian commanders report the situation remains difficult but under control, with the line of contact unchanged and Orikhiv itself held by Ukrainian forces despite sporadic infiltration attempts. Russian operations in the adjacent Hulyaipole direction have produced incremental gains since spring, yet efforts to link axes toward Orikhiv have not yielded major breakthroughs. Ukrainian units continue repelling localized attacks, including recent probes near Chervona Krynytsia. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect this ongoing force buildup against entrenched Ukrainian defenses and the absence of rapid territorial shifts in the sector.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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