Bipartisan congressional majorities have consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, as seen in the $5 trillion increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the current $41.1 trillion cap. With gross federal debt surpassing $40 trillion in August 2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next potential X-date in 2027 after extraordinary measures extend Treasury flexibility by six to nine months. Traders price the near-certain "No" outcome at 96.9 percent because both parties treat actual default—missed Treasury payments or ratings agency default declarations—as carrying prohibitive costs in higher borrowing yields, market volatility, and economic disruption. Late-session negotiations, revenue surprises, or unforeseen fiscal shocks before December 31, 2026, remain the primary variables that could still shift the implied probability.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% tsansa
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% tsansa
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Bipartisan congressional majorities have consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, as seen in the $5 trillion increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the current $41.1 trillion cap. With gross federal debt surpassing $40 trillion in August 2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next potential X-date in 2027 after extraordinary measures extend Treasury flexibility by six to nine months. Traders price the near-certain "No" outcome at 96.9 percent because both parties treat actual default—missed Treasury payments or ratings agency default declarations—as carrying prohibitive costs in higher borrowing yields, market volatility, and economic disruption. Late-session negotiations, revenue surprises, or unforeseen fiscal shocks before December 31, 2026, remain the primary variables that could still shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,051Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Bipartisan congressional majorities have consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, as seen in the $5 trillion increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the current $41.1 trillion cap. With gross federal debt surpassing $40 trillion in August 2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next potential X-date in 2027 after extraordinary measures extend Treasury flexibility by six to nine months. Traders price the near-certain "No" outcome at 96.9 percent because both parties treat actual default—missed Treasury payments or ratings agency default declarations—as carrying prohibitive costs in higher borrowing yields, market volatility, and economic disruption. Late-session negotiations, revenue surprises, or unforeseen fiscal shocks before December 31, 2026, remain the primary variables that could still shift the implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,051Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan congressional majorities have consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, as seen in the $5 trillion increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the current $41.1 trillion cap. With gross federal debt surpassing $40 trillion in August 2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next potential X-date in 2027 after extraordinary measures extend Treasury flexibility by six to nine months. Traders price the near-certain "No" outcome at 96.9 percent because both parties treat actual default—missed Treasury payments or ratings agency default declarations—as carrying prohibitive costs in higher borrowing yields, market volatility, and economic disruption. Late-session negotiations, revenue surprises, or unforeseen fiscal shocks before December 31, 2026, remain the primary variables that could still shift the implied probability.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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