Recent White House frustrations over the Iran war and its political fallout have fueled speculation about further cabinet turnover following the earlier exits of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick lead trader pricing at 38% and 32% respectively, reflecting reports of internal pressure on Gabbard for declining to criticize a deputy’s resignation and on Lutnick over policy frictions and external scrutiny. Marco Rubio and Chris Wright sit close behind at 22% each amid broader Senate discussions of pre-midterm adjustments, while the 21% chance assigned to no departure before 2027 captures the administration’s recent stability relative to the first term. Multiple overlapping factors, including confirmation timelines and legislative priorities, keep the field tightly contested until a clear signal emerges from the president or Senate.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateTulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 34.2%
None before 2027 25%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Howard Lutnick
34%
None before 2027
25%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
17%
Marco Rubio
19%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
22%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 34.2%
None before 2027 25%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Vol.
38%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Vol.
34%
None before 2027
$223 Vol.
25%
Scott Bessent
$233 Vol.
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 Vol.
17%
Marco Rubio
$294 Vol.
19%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
4%
Chris Wright
$390 Vol.
22%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Vol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$352 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent White House frustrations over the Iran war and its political fallout have fueled speculation about further cabinet turnover following the earlier exits of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick lead trader pricing at 38% and 32% respectively, reflecting reports of internal pressure on Gabbard for declining to criticize a deputy’s resignation and on Lutnick over policy frictions and external scrutiny. Marco Rubio and Chris Wright sit close behind at 22% each amid broader Senate discussions of pre-midterm adjustments, while the 21% chance assigned to no departure before 2027 captures the administration’s recent stability relative to the first term. Multiple overlapping factors, including confirmation timelines and legislative priorities, keep the field tightly contested until a clear signal emerges from the president or Senate.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$11,675Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent White House frustrations over the Iran war and its political fallout have fueled speculation about further cabinet turnover following the earlier exits of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick lead trader pricing at 38% and 32% respectively, reflecting reports of internal pressure on Gabbard for declining to criticize a deputy’s resignation and on Lutnick over policy frictions and external scrutiny. Marco Rubio and Chris Wright sit close behind at 22% each amid broader Senate discussions of pre-midterm adjustments, while the 21% chance assigned to no departure before 2027 captures the administration’s recent stability relative to the first term. Multiple overlapping factors, including confirmation timelines and legislative priorities, keep the field tightly contested until a clear signal emerges from the president or Senate.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$11,675Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent White House frustrations over the Iran war and its political fallout have fueled speculation about further cabinet turnover following the earlier exits of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick lead trader pricing at 38% and 32% respectively, reflecting reports of internal pressure on Gabbard for declining to criticize a deputy’s resignation and on Lutnick over policy frictions and external scrutiny. Marco Rubio and Chris Wright sit close behind at 22% each amid broader Senate discussions of pre-midterm adjustments, while the 21% chance assigned to no departure before 2027 captures the administration’s recent stability relative to the first term. Multiple overlapping factors, including confirmation timelines and legislative priorities, keep the field tightly contested until a clear signal emerges from the president or Senate.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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