The 91.5 percent trader consensus against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran by the end of 2026 stems primarily from the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iranian targets that began in late February and continues amid a fragile, repeatedly strained ceasefire. Decades of severed diplomatic ties since the 1979 revolution have been reinforced by Israeli calls for allies to close embassies in Tehran and by the absence of any normalization signals from either government. Ongoing disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies further sustain the impasse, with recent U.S. rejection of Iranian proposals leaving any broader thaw on uncertain footing. A sudden regime change in Tehran or unexpected high-level diplomatic breakthrough remain the narrow pathways that could shift these probabilities before year-end.