Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges, including the February 2026 Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have remained focused on air and naval operations rather than ground forces. Ongoing friction centers on Strait of Hormuz access, with repeated Iranian attacks on shipping prompting U.S. blockades and counterstrikes, yet multiple ceasefires, a June memorandum of understanding, and active mediation by Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan have kept full-scale escalation in check. As of mid-August 2026, the expired 60-day talks window has produced renewed diplomatic signals alongside threats, but no deployment of U.S. troops for occupation. Traders view these patterns of limited strikes, naval posturing, and negotiation efforts as reducing the near-term likelihood of a ground invasion before 2027.