The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and adjusted brackets for inflation but left long-term capital gains rates at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure without any reduction. With the 2025 legislative calendar now closed and midterm pressures building, Republican priorities have shifted toward deficit reduction and other fiscal measures rather than additional rate cuts before 2027. Proposals such as inflation indexing advanced by individual lawmakers have failed to advance through Congress despite unified party control, reflecting limited appetite for further changes that could widen budget gaps. Traders therefore assign a 73 percent probability to no cut occurring by the deadline, consistent with the absence of new congressional action or executive momentum in recent months.