Ukraine’s constitutional framework and ongoing martial law, most recently extended by the Verkhovna Rada through August 2026, prevent presidential elections from occurring before a ceasefire and security guarantees are in place. This framework has allowed President Zelenskyy to remain in office past his original 2024 term expiration, with no verified signals of resignation, impeachment proceedings, or leadership challenges emerging in recent months. Diplomatic efforts continue amid the active conflict with Russia, but no breakthrough sufficient to lift martial law or enable a vote by late June appears on the horizon. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for “No” reflects these structural barriers. The only realistic paths to an earlier departure remain an abrupt ceasefire that immediately triggers an election timeline or unforeseen personal or political developments that could still alter the timeline before the resolution date.