Ukraine’s constitutional framework and repeated extensions of martial law through at least August 2026 continue to block presidential elections, allowing incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to remain in office beyond his original term. Recent battlefield developments, including intensified Russian strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian drone operations in May 2026, have shown no signs of an imminent ceasefire that could lift restrictions and trigger voting. Traders assign 95.3 percent probability that Zelenskyy stays through June 30 because any path to removal requires either a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or an unexpected parliamentary vote to end martial law—both viewed as unlikely within the short window. Late developments such as a verified ceasefire agreement or major health-related incapacity could still shift the outcome before the cutoff.