Omar Aziz (PSD) holds an 82.5% implied probability in the runoff for Amazonas governor after leading the first round on October 4 with 40.63% of valid votes, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.49%. Multiple mid-October polls, including Pontual (61% to 39%), Projeta (57.7% to 42.3%), and Real Time Big Data (53% to 47% valid votes), show Aziz extending his advantage, particularly in the interior while remaining competitive in Manaus. The October 25 second-round vote and consistent survey leads across institutes have anchored trader consensus around Aziz, with Maria do Carmo at 17.5% and other first-round candidates below 1%.