Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite numerous past petitions, including repeated filings targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Recent procedural barriers reinforce this pattern: a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes (later partially adjusted) restricted initiation of such cases primarily to the Prosecutor-General while emphasizing a two-thirds Senate threshold, and congressional inquiries like the April 2026 Banco Master CPI report recommending proceedings against Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes carry no binding effect. With the current Senate composition aligned behind the Lula administration and leadership consistently declining to advance complaints, traders see removal as improbable before the 2027 transition. A decisive post-2026 election realignment or unforeseen institutional rupture could still intervene, though both remain remote within the short window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$83,546 Обс.
$83,546 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$83,546 Обс.
$83,546 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite numerous past petitions, including repeated filings targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Recent procedural barriers reinforce this pattern: a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes (later partially adjusted) restricted initiation of such cases primarily to the Prosecutor-General while emphasizing a two-thirds Senate threshold, and congressional inquiries like the April 2026 Banco Master CPI report recommending proceedings against Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes carry no binding effect. With the current Senate composition aligned behind the Lula administration and leadership consistently declining to advance complaints, traders see removal as improbable before the 2027 transition. A decisive post-2026 election realignment or unforeseen institutional rupture could still intervene, though both remain remote within the short window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$83,546Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite numerous past petitions, including repeated filings targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Recent procedural barriers reinforce this pattern: a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes (later partially adjusted) restricted initiation of such cases primarily to the Prosecutor-General while emphasizing a two-thirds Senate threshold, and congressional inquiries like the April 2026 Banco Master CPI report recommending proceedings against Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes carry no binding effect. With the current Senate composition aligned behind the Lula administration and leadership consistently declining to advance complaints, traders see removal as improbable before the 2027 transition. A decisive post-2026 election realignment or unforeseen institutional rupture could still intervene, though both remain remote within the short window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$83,546Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite numerous past petitions, including repeated filings targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Recent procedural barriers reinforce this pattern: a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes (later partially adjusted) restricted initiation of such cases primarily to the Prosecutor-General while emphasizing a two-thirds Senate threshold, and congressional inquiries like the April 2026 Banco Master CPI report recommending proceedings against Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes carry no binding effect. With the current Senate composition aligned behind the Lula administration and leadership consistently declining to advance complaints, traders see removal as improbable before the 2027 transition. A decisive post-2026 election realignment or unforeseen institutional rupture could still intervene, though both remain remote within the short window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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