Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated impeachment petitions, including dozens targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and required a two-thirds Senate vote to open proceedings, erecting procedural barriers that remain under review. Current congressional alignment with the Lula administration further reduces prospects for the 54 votes needed before the end of 2026. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to “No” based on this combination of institutional precedent, Senate leadership resistance, and the high constitutional threshold. A post-election Senate majority shift or reversal of the Mendes ruling could still open pathways, though both face significant timing and vote-count obstacles within the resolution window.