The Bank of England’s April 30 decision to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8-1 vote, coupled with March CPI inflation at 3.3% and energy-price pass-through from the Middle East conflict, has anchored trader consensus at an 84.5% implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting. Recent labor-market data showing regular earnings growth slowing to a five-year low of 3.6% further supports the view that policymakers will remain on hold rather than risk a premature tightening that could exacerbate downside growth risks. While Governor Bailey’s warnings of inflation potentially exceeding 3.5% later this year sustain the 14.5% odds on a 25-basis-point hike, the absence of fresh data releases sufficient to shift the balance keeps cut probabilities below 1%.