Trader consensus assigning 92.5% probability that Costco will not raise the $1.50 hot-dog-and-drink combo price before 2027 reflects the company’s four-decade adherence to this loss-leader pricing, reinforced by CEO Ron Vachris’s explicit pledge to maintain it amid persistent food-cost pressures. Recent April 2026 menu adjustments that introduced a bottled-water option without any price change further underscore management’s priority on perceived value and membership renewal traffic over short-term margin expansion. While broader commodity inflation or a leadership transition could theoretically alter the stance, the market-implied odds embed the low likelihood of such a break from established precedent through the end of 2026.