Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG typically transits, continue to shape trader views on the islands' control. Kharg Island alone accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude exports, with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day and recent inventories around 18 million barrels amid U.S. strikes on military sites in March and renewed attacks in July. The June memorandum of understanding and August negotiations involving Iran, Oman, and the U.S. aim to restore shipping access without territorial shifts, though Iranian assertions of sovereignty and ship strikes have slowed traffic to near standstill levels. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around any potential escalation versus a diplomatic resolution that leaves Iranian control intact, with oil price volatility and supply risk premiums serving as key benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$95,006 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$95,006 Обс.
August 31
$25,881 Обс.
1%
September 30
$69,125 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG typically transits, continue to shape trader views on the islands' control. Kharg Island alone accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude exports, with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day and recent inventories around 18 million barrels amid U.S. strikes on military sites in March and renewed attacks in July. The June memorandum of understanding and August negotiations involving Iran, Oman, and the U.S. aim to restore shipping access without territorial shifts, though Iranian assertions of sovereignty and ship strikes have slowed traffic to near standstill levels. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around any potential escalation versus a diplomatic resolution that leaves Iranian control intact, with oil price volatility and supply risk premiums serving as key benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$95,006Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG typically transits, continue to shape trader views on the islands' control. Kharg Island alone accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude exports, with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day and recent inventories around 18 million barrels amid U.S. strikes on military sites in March and renewed attacks in July. The June memorandum of understanding and August negotiations involving Iran, Oman, and the U.S. aim to restore shipping access without territorial shifts, though Iranian assertions of sovereignty and ship strikes have slowed traffic to near standstill levels. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around any potential escalation versus a diplomatic resolution that leaves Iranian control intact, with oil price volatility and supply risk premiums serving as key benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$95,006Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG typically transits, continue to shape trader views on the islands' control. Kharg Island alone accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude exports, with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day and recent inventories around 18 million barrels amid U.S. strikes on military sites in March and renewed attacks in July. The June memorandum of understanding and August negotiations involving Iran, Oman, and the U.S. aim to restore shipping access without territorial shifts, though Iranian assertions of sovereignty and ship strikes have slowed traffic to near standstill levels. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around any potential escalation versus a diplomatic resolution that leaves Iranian control intact, with oil price volatility and supply risk premiums serving as key benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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