Trader consensus clusters around 36–37°C for Chengdu’s August 10 peak because current atmospheric patterns, including a persistent subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover, favor above-average insolation across the Sichuan Basin. Regional topography traps heat and moisture, elevating daytime maxima several degrees above the long-term August mean of roughly 31–32°C, while high humidity slows nocturnal cooling. Recent cooler readings near 29°C on August 6 highlight forecast sensitivity to short-term steering flows and convective timing; afternoon thunderstorms could cap temperatures at 35°C, whereas clearer conditions would push readings to 37°C or higher. Ensemble model spreads from global and regional guidance reflect this genuine uncertainty, with new runs expected in the next 24–48 hours to refine land–atmosphere interactions and boundary-layer evolution.