Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate Houston’s July 12 maximum will likely fall in the upper 80s to low 90s under a building subtropical ridge, light southerly flow, and typical July humidity that caps afternoon heating near the 94 °F climatological normal. Variable cloud cover, possible sea-breeze convergence, and isolated afternoon convection introduce the main spread, keeping the 88–91 °F bins tightly matched while muting odds for 94 °F or higher. Updated short-range model runs overnight and the official NWS forecast will refine boundary-layer mixing and thunderstorm timing ahead of market resolution.