Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 22?
34°C 46%
33°C 43%
32°C 9%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
9%
33°C
43%
34°C
46%
35°C
7%
36°C
3%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 46%
33°C 43%
32°C 9%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
29°C or below
$85 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$51 Обс.
1%
31°C
$41 Обс.
2%
32°C
$56 Обс.
9%
33°C
$142 Обс.
43%
34°C
$235 Обс.
46%
35°C
$105 Обс.
7%
36°C
$20 Обс.
3%
37°C
$46 Обс.
<1%
38°C
$131 Обс.
<1%
39°C or higher
$367 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,259Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,259Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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