Ensemble forecasts from major models such as ECMWF and GFS currently cluster Milan’s August 22 daytime maximum near 28–30 °C, producing the narrow market split between 29 °C (40.5 %) and 28 °C (33.5 %). Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of any diurnal showers account for most of the spread; clearer skies or stronger subsidence would push readings to 30 °C or higher, while earlier cloud cover or greater mixing would favor the lower bin. Historical August climatology for Milan shows typical highs of 28–30 °C, providing context for the modest 19.5 % implied probability on 30 °C+. Updated short-range model runs and Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Milan on August 22?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 22?
29°C 39%
28°C 33%
30°C or higher 23%
27°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
8%
28°C
33%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
23%
29°C 39%
28°C 33%
30°C or higher 23%
27°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
20°C or below
$299 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$299 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$299 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$314 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$167 Обс.
1%
25°C
$120 Обс.
1%
26°C
$262 Обс.
3%
27°C
$239 Обс.
8%
28°C
$815 Обс.
33%
29°C
$179 Обс.
39%
30°C or higher
$447 Обс.
23%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from major models such as ECMWF and GFS currently cluster Milan’s August 22 daytime maximum near 28–30 °C, producing the narrow market split between 29 °C (40.5 %) and 28 °C (33.5 %). Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of any diurnal showers account for most of the spread; clearer skies or stronger subsidence would push readings to 30 °C or higher, while earlier cloud cover or greater mixing would favor the lower bin. Historical August climatology for Milan shows typical highs of 28–30 °C, providing context for the modest 19.5 % implied probability on 30 °C+. Updated short-range model runs and Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,439Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from major models such as ECMWF and GFS currently cluster Milan’s August 22 daytime maximum near 28–30 °C, producing the narrow market split between 29 °C (40.5 %) and 28 °C (33.5 %). Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of any diurnal showers account for most of the spread; clearer skies or stronger subsidence would push readings to 30 °C or higher, while earlier cloud cover or greater mixing would favor the lower bin. Historical August climatology for Milan shows typical highs of 28–30 °C, providing context for the modest 19.5 % implied probability on 30 °C+. Updated short-range model runs and Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,439Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from major models such as ECMWF and GFS currently cluster Milan’s August 22 daytime maximum near 28–30 °C, producing the narrow market split between 29 °C (40.5 %) and 28 °C (33.5 %). Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of any diurnal showers account for most of the spread; clearer skies or stronger subsidence would push readings to 30 °C or higher, while earlier cloud cover or greater mixing would favor the lower bin. Historical August climatology for Milan shows typical highs of 28–30 °C, providing context for the modest 19.5 % implied probability on 30 °C+. Updated short-range model runs and Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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