Recent model runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and European centers indicate overnight lows near 12–15°C for Helsinki on August 22, driven by southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited radiational cooling under light winds. This positions the 13–15°C bins as tightly contested at roughly 27–28% each in trader consensus, while the elevated 37.5% implied probability on 8°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential late-model shifts in frontal timing or clearer skies that could allow greater temperature drops. Historical August minima average near 11–13°C, underscoring how small variations in boundary-layer moisture and advection will determine final resolution as updated forecasts arrive overnight.