Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
14%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
$2,145 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$180 Обс.
1%
27°C
$108 Обс.
2%
28°C
$23 Обс.
3%
29°C
$66 Обс.
8%
30°C
$51 Обс.
26%
31°C
$105 Обс.
32%
32°C
$18 Обс.
14%
33°C
$27 Обс.
8%
34°C
$94 Обс.
4%
35°C or higher
$5 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,824Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,824Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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