Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 21 clustering near 25–26°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability in central Europe, where warm-air advection under a weak high-pressure ridge competes with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current model runs indicate slightly above-normal conditions due to persistent southerly flow. Traders weigh resolution criteria tied to official Polish meteorological service observations, with uncertainty highest around frontal timing and boundary-layer mixing that differentiate 25°C from 26°C or 27°C scenarios in the final 48-hour updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
32%
26°C
38%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
3%
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$482 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$492 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$292 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$93 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$0 Обс.
1%
23°C
$33 Обс.
3%
24°C
$42 Обс.
9%
25°C
$26 Обс.
32%
26°C
$73 Обс.
38%
27°C
$133 Обс.
17%
28°C or higher
$94 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 21 clustering near 25–26°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability in central Europe, where warm-air advection under a weak high-pressure ridge competes with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current model runs indicate slightly above-normal conditions due to persistent southerly flow. Traders weigh resolution criteria tied to official Polish meteorological service observations, with uncertainty highest around frontal timing and boundary-layer mixing that differentiate 25°C from 26°C or 27°C scenarios in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,760Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 21 clustering near 25–26°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability in central Europe, where warm-air advection under a weak high-pressure ridge competes with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current model runs indicate slightly above-normal conditions due to persistent southerly flow. Traders weigh resolution criteria tied to official Polish meteorological service observations, with uncertainty highest around frontal timing and boundary-layer mixing that differentiate 25°C from 26°C or 27°C scenarios in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,760Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 21 clustering near 25–26°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability in central Europe, where warm-air advection under a weak high-pressure ridge competes with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current model runs indicate slightly above-normal conditions due to persistent southerly flow. Traders weigh resolution criteria tied to official Polish meteorological service observations, with uncertainty highest around frontal timing and boundary-layer mixing that differentiate 25°C from 26°C or 27°C scenarios in the final 48-hour updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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