Ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF converge on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, which favors strong daytime heating in the inland plateau setting. This consensus underpins the market’s tight split between the 34°C (47.5%) and 33°C (38%) outcomes, with smaller probabilities for 35°C or lower values reflecting residual model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Late-August climatology places the average high near 32°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal amid the broader seasonal warmth signal. Traders are weighing the final model runs and any late adjustments to surface winds or thin high cloud that could trim the peak by 1°C before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
34°C 48%
33°C 38%
35°C 10%
32°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
8%
33°C
38%
34°C
48%
35°C
10%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 48%
33°C 38%
35°C 10%
32°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
$519 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$154 Обс.
1%
31°C
$234 Обс.
2%
32°C
$402 Обс.
8%
33°C
$674 Обс.
38%
34°C
$1,344 Обс.
48%
35°C
$221 Обс.
10%
36°C
$252 Обс.
1%
37°C
$157 Обс.
1%
38°C
$146 Обс.
<1%
39°C or higher
$263 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF converge on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, which favors strong daytime heating in the inland plateau setting. This consensus underpins the market’s tight split between the 34°C (47.5%) and 33°C (38%) outcomes, with smaller probabilities for 35°C or lower values reflecting residual model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Late-August climatology places the average high near 32°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal amid the broader seasonal warmth signal. Traders are weighing the final model runs and any late adjustments to surface winds or thin high cloud that could trim the peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,366Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF converge on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, which favors strong daytime heating in the inland plateau setting. This consensus underpins the market’s tight split between the 34°C (47.5%) and 33°C (38%) outcomes, with smaller probabilities for 35°C or lower values reflecting residual model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Late-August climatology places the average high near 32°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal amid the broader seasonal warmth signal. Traders are weighing the final model runs and any late adjustments to surface winds or thin high cloud that could trim the peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,366Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF converge on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, which favors strong daytime heating in the inland plateau setting. This consensus underpins the market’s tight split between the 34°C (47.5%) and 33°C (38%) outcomes, with smaller probabilities for 35°C or lower values reflecting residual model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Late-August climatology places the average high near 32°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal amid the broader seasonal warmth signal. Traders are weighing the final model runs and any late adjustments to surface winds or thin high cloud that could trim the peak by 1°C before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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