Strong National Weather Service and model consensus for a Miami high of 92–93°F on August 20, measured at Miami International Airport, has driven near-certain market pricing on that bin. Persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and dew points in the mid-70s supported heat indices above 100°F while limiting convective cooling until late afternoon, aligning with climatological norms for late-August peaks near 91°F. Official observations confirming the exact threshold, rather than higher readings from brief insolation spikes or lower values from earlier showers, locked in trader confidence. A revised post-event station report or measurement error exceeding 1–2°F could theoretically shift resolution, though such revisions remain rare for this automated airport site.