**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA seasonal guidance, and global models points to a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 22, aligning with the near-even 47% implied probabilities on those outcomes.** August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly flow, but short-term variability arises from frontal passages, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and local wind regimes that can enhance or suppress mixing. Recent model runs indicate mostly stable conditions with light southwesterlies and limited precipitation, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong warm advection. Differentiation between 13°C and 14°C hinges on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer details, while a 15°C outcome would require clearer skies or a modest northerly shift—scenarios assigned lower weight given current guidance. Updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution improves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 22?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 22?
15°C 54%
14°C 34%
17°C 6%
13°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
34%
15°C
54%
16°C
4%
17°C
6%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 54%
14°C 34%
17°C 6%
13°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
9°C or below
$25 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$12 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$16 Обс.
1%
12°C
$3 Обс.
1%
13°C
$0 Обс.
5%
14°C
$3 Обс.
34%
15°C
$25 Обс.
54%
16°C
$0 Обс.
4%
17°C
$0 Обс.
6%
18°C
$0 Обс.
3%
19°C or higher
$11 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA seasonal guidance, and global models points to a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 22, aligning with the near-even 47% implied probabilities on those outcomes.**
August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly flow, but short-term variability arises from frontal passages, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and local wind regimes that can enhance or suppress mixing. Recent model runs indicate mostly stable conditions with light southwesterlies and limited precipitation, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong warm advection. Differentiation between 13°C and 14°C hinges on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer details, while a 15°C outcome would require clearer skies or a modest northerly shift—scenarios assigned lower weight given current guidance. Updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution improves.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$94Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA seasonal guidance, and global models points to a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 22, aligning with the near-even 47% implied probabilities on those outcomes.**
August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly flow, but short-term variability arises from frontal passages, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and local wind regimes that can enhance or suppress mixing. Recent model runs indicate mostly stable conditions with light southwesterlies and limited precipitation, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong warm advection. Differentiation between 13°C and 14°C hinges on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer details, while a 15°C outcome would require clearer skies or a modest northerly shift—scenarios assigned lower weight given current guidance. Updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution improves.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$94Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA seasonal guidance, and global models points to a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 22, aligning with the near-even 47% implied probabilities on those outcomes.** August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly flow, but short-term variability arises from frontal passages, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and local wind regimes that can enhance or suppress mixing. Recent model runs indicate mostly stable conditions with light southwesterlies and limited precipitation, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong warm advection. Differentiation between 13°C and 14°C hinges on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer details, while a 15°C outcome would require clearer skies or a modest northerly shift—scenarios assigned lower weight given current guidance. Updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution improves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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