Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies show Warsaw's August 22 maximum temperature likely settling near 21–22°C amid typical late-summer high pressure and moderate humidity levels. Ensemble guidance reflects modest variability from possible afternoon showers or variable cloud cover that could cap daytime warming, aligning with the market's emphasis on 21°C as the leading outcome. Historical August averages near 22–23°C provide context, yet short-range updates from the next model runs may shift probabilities if boundary-layer conditions deviate. Resolution depends on official station readings, underscoring the narrow uncertainty range traders are pricing.