Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models point to Busan overnight lows of 24–26°C on August 22, shaped by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions elevate the minimum temperature above typical August baselines of 22–23°C by retaining heat in the boundary layer and limiting clear-sky heat loss. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 25°C and 26°C because modest variations in wind speed or shower timing could shift the exact low by 1°C, while stronger onshore flow or clearer breaks would favor the lower side. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 21 remain the key near-term catalysts.