Forecast consensus from numerical weather models points to a daytime maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, supporting the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome. Partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and moderate humidity around 60-70% should limit extreme heating, while afternoon sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea and potential scattered convection introduce modest cooling. Recent observations show highs of 31-34°C, consistent with September climatology near 31°C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model guidance favoring 32-34°C against uncertainty from evolving cloud cover or isolated showers that could shift the peak. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria tomorrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 20?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 20?
33°C 43%
32°C 29%
34°C 19%
31°C 8%
НОВЕ
$19,334 Обс.
НОВЕ
$19,334 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
8%
32°C
29%
33°C
43%
34°C
19%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 43%
32°C 29%
34°C 19%
31°C 8%
НОВЕ
$19,334 Обс.
НОВЕ
$19,334 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
$111 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$1,184 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$1,357 Обс.
1%
31°C
$1,700 Обс.
8%
32°C
$3,394 Обс.
29%
33°C
$3,625 Обс.
43%
34°C
$6,194 Обс.
19%
35°C
$693 Обс.
1%
36°C
$565 Обс.
<1%
37°C
$402 Обс.
<1%
38°C or higher
$117 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical weather models points to a daytime maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, supporting the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome. Partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and moderate humidity around 60-70% should limit extreme heating, while afternoon sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea and potential scattered convection introduce modest cooling. Recent observations show highs of 31-34°C, consistent with September climatology near 31°C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model guidance favoring 32-34°C against uncertainty from evolving cloud cover or isolated showers that could shift the peak. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$19,334Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical weather models points to a daytime maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, supporting the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome. Partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and moderate humidity around 60-70% should limit extreme heating, while afternoon sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea and potential scattered convection introduce modest cooling. Recent observations show highs of 31-34°C, consistent with September climatology near 31°C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model guidance favoring 32-34°C against uncertainty from evolving cloud cover or isolated showers that could shift the peak. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$19,334Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from numerical weather models points to a daytime maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, supporting the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome. Partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and moderate humidity around 60-70% should limit extreme heating, while afternoon sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea and potential scattered convection introduce modest cooling. Recent observations show highs of 31-34°C, consistent with September climatology near 31°C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model guidance favoring 32-34°C against uncertainty from evolving cloud cover or isolated showers that could shift the peak. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria tomorrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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