President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено15s+ 56%
10–15s 21%
6–10s 16%
2–6s 7.9%
$261,630 Обс.
$261,630 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
No Handshake
3%
<2s
1%
2–6s
8%
6–10s
16%
10–15s
21%
15s+
56%
Photographed only
2%
15s+ 56%
10–15s 21%
6–10s 16%
2–6s 7.9%
$261,630 Обс.
$261,630 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
No Handshake
$54,461 Обс.
3%
<2s
$40,811 Обс.
1%
2–6s
$42,080 Обс.
8%
6–10s
$20,318 Обс.
16%
10–15s
$20,325 Обс.
21%
15s+
$48,284 Обс.
56%
Photographed only
$41,529 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Обсяг
$261,630Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Обсяг
$261,630Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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