A major 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck offshore the Philippines on June 8, triggering extensive aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring shows are already elevating the weekly global tally of 5.5+ events. Historical USGS records indicate an average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur worldwide each week under normal conditions, but large mainshocks like this one routinely produce dozens of qualifying aftershocks within days, explaining the market’s 94.5% implied probability for more than nine total. Continued aftershock decay, any additional M6+ events, or revisions to preliminary magnitudes represent the primary variables that could alter the final count before the June 14 close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
>9 95%
9 2.5%
8 2.4%
6 1.0%
$26,012 Обс.
$26,012 Обс.
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
2%
9
3%
>9
95%
>9 95%
9 2.5%
8 2.4%
6 1.0%
$26,012 Обс.
$26,012 Обс.
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
2%
9
3%
>9
95%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A major 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck offshore the Philippines on June 8, triggering extensive aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring shows are already elevating the weekly global tally of 5.5+ events. Historical USGS records indicate an average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur worldwide each week under normal conditions, but large mainshocks like this one routinely produce dozens of qualifying aftershocks within days, explaining the market’s 94.5% implied probability for more than nine total. Continued aftershock decay, any additional M6+ events, or revisions to preliminary magnitudes represent the primary variables that could alter the final count before the June 14 close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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