Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with expanded blockade threats and sharply higher war-risk premiums, have tempered commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb despite a broader Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly transits have stabilized near 223–269 in mid-to-late August, supported by container lines such as Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM routing more Asia-Europe services via Suez, yet tanker and Yanbu crude volumes remain pressured. Trader consensus around the 170–209 range reflects these offsetting dynamics—modest volume gains from returning carriers offset by selective avoidance, dark transits, and ballast movements—while lower probabilities for sub-170 or 230+ outcomes price in the persistent geopolitical friction and elevated insurance costs heading into the final week of August.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 44%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 10%
НОВЕ
$24,177 Обс.
НОВЕ
$24,177 Обс.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
3%
170-189
33%
190-209
44%
210-229
10%
230+
14%
190-209 44%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 10%
НОВЕ
$24,177 Обс.
НОВЕ
$24,177 Обс.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$116 Обс.
3%
170-189
$116 Обс.
33%
190-209
$1,910 Обс.
44%
210-229
$8,983 Обс.
10%
230+
$13,051 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with expanded blockade threats and sharply higher war-risk premiums, have tempered commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb despite a broader Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly transits have stabilized near 223–269 in mid-to-late August, supported by container lines such as Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM routing more Asia-Europe services via Suez, yet tanker and Yanbu crude volumes remain pressured. Trader consensus around the 170–209 range reflects these offsetting dynamics—modest volume gains from returning carriers offset by selective avoidance, dark transits, and ballast movements—while lower probabilities for sub-170 or 230+ outcomes price in the persistent geopolitical friction and elevated insurance costs heading into the final week of August.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$24,177Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with expanded blockade threats and sharply higher war-risk premiums, have tempered commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb despite a broader Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly transits have stabilized near 223–269 in mid-to-late August, supported by container lines such as Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM routing more Asia-Europe services via Suez, yet tanker and Yanbu crude volumes remain pressured. Trader consensus around the 170–209 range reflects these offsetting dynamics—modest volume gains from returning carriers offset by selective avoidance, dark transits, and ballast movements—while lower probabilities for sub-170 or 230+ outcomes price in the persistent geopolitical friction and elevated insurance costs heading into the final week of August.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$24,177Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with expanded blockade threats and sharply higher war-risk premiums, have tempered commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb despite a broader Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly transits have stabilized near 223–269 in mid-to-late August, supported by container lines such as Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM routing more Asia-Europe services via Suez, yet tanker and Yanbu crude volumes remain pressured. Trader consensus around the 170–209 range reflects these offsetting dynamics—modest volume gains from returning carriers offset by selective avoidance, dark transits, and ballast movements—while lower probabilities for sub-170 or 230+ outcomes price in the persistent geopolitical friction and elevated insurance costs heading into the final week of August.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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