Ongoing tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, including Israeli strikes and reported Hezbollah incidents in July and August 2026, have sustained trader skepticism about full normalization before 2027 despite the June 2026 U.S.-brokered Trilateral Framework Agreement. That accord outlines phased Israeli withdrawals, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south, and Hezbollah disarmament as steps toward ending the state of conflict and enabling peaceful relations. Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have repeatedly stated that diplomatic or economic normalization remains distant, often conditioned on broader regional issues such as Palestinian statehood. Hezbollah's rejection of disarmament, implementation delays in pilot zones, and domestic Lebanese political constraints further limit near-term prospects for formal diplomatic ties, aligning with the 90.5% implied probability traders assign to the "No" outcome.