Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$19,815,112 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
June 30
2%
July 15
11%
July 31
18%
$19,815,112 Обс.
June 30
$4,503,447 Обс.
2%
July 15
$536,402 Обс.
11%
July 31
$644,893 Обс.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,815,112Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$19,815,112Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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