Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution or arrest on pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, misuse of public funds, and alleged illegal remittances to North Korea—were indefinitely suspended by mid-2025 after he took office in June 2025, with courts citing constitutional protections. No new indictments, legislative moves to strip immunity, or impeachment proceedings have advanced as of mid-2026. These institutional barriers, combined with the absence of fresh legal actions capable of triggering detention before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, underpin the 91.4% trader consensus favoring "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
9% шанс
$528,704 Обс.
$528,704 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
$528,704 Обс.
$528,704 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution or arrest on pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, misuse of public funds, and alleged illegal remittances to North Korea—were indefinitely suspended by mid-2025 after he took office in June 2025, with courts citing constitutional protections. No new indictments, legislative moves to strip immunity, or impeachment proceedings have advanced as of mid-2026. These institutional barriers, combined with the absence of fresh legal actions capable of triggering detention before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, underpin the 91.4% trader consensus favoring "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Обсяг
$528,704Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution or arrest on pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, misuse of public funds, and alleged illegal remittances to North Korea—were indefinitely suspended by mid-2025 after he took office in June 2025, with courts citing constitutional protections. No new indictments, legislative moves to strip immunity, or impeachment proceedings have advanced as of mid-2026. These institutional barriers, combined with the absence of fresh legal actions capable of triggering detention before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, underpin the 91.4% trader consensus favoring "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$528,704Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential immunity under Article 84 of the South Korean constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from prosecution or arrest on pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. All five ongoing criminal cases—covering election-law violations, bribery, corruption, misuse of public funds, and alleged illegal remittances to North Korea—were indefinitely suspended by mid-2025 after he took office in June 2025, with courts citing constitutional protections. No new indictments, legislative moves to strip immunity, or impeachment proceedings have advanced as of mid-2026. These institutional barriers, combined with the absence of fresh legal actions capable of triggering detention before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, underpin the 91.4% trader consensus favoring "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання