**As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional protections that have led courts to indefinitely suspend or postpone all five ongoing criminal cases against him, including election-law violations, bribery allegations tied to his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor, and related charges.** These proceedings, initiated before his election, remain on hold following his victory in the snap presidential vote and have shown no signs of reactivation through mid-2026. His Democratic Party maintains a strong National Assembly position, reinforced by victories in most 2026 local races, while approval ratings have stayed relatively high (around 60% for much of his first year). No new indictments, prosecutorial actions, or legislative moves to lift immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an implied 91.4% probability to “No,” reflecting the structural barriers to arresting a sitting president and the absence of recent catalysts that would alter that consensus before the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$528,704 Обс.
$528,704 Обс.
$528,704 Обс.
$528,704 Обс.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional protections that have led courts to indefinitely suspend or postpone all five ongoing criminal cases against him, including election-law violations, bribery allegations tied to his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor, and related charges.** These proceedings, initiated before his election, remain on hold following his victory in the snap presidential vote and have shown no signs of reactivation through mid-2026. His Democratic Party maintains a strong National Assembly position, reinforced by victories in most 2026 local races, while approval ratings have stayed relatively high (around 60% for much of his first year). No new indictments, prosecutorial actions, or legislative moves to lift immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an implied 91.4% probability to “No,” reflecting the structural barriers to arresting a sitting president and the absence of recent catalysts that would alter that consensus before the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено



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