**As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional protections that have led courts to indefinitely suspend or postpone all five ongoing criminal cases against him, including election-law violations, bribery allegations tied to his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor, and related charges.** These proceedings, initiated before his election, remain on hold following his victory in the snap presidential vote and have shown no signs of reactivation through mid-2026. His Democratic Party maintains a strong National Assembly position, reinforced by victories in most 2026 local races, while approval ratings have stayed relatively high (around 60% for much of his first year). No new indictments, prosecutorial actions, or legislative moves to lift immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an implied 91.4% probability to “No,” reflecting the structural barriers to arresting a sitting president and the absence of recent catalysts that would alter that consensus before the end of 2026.