North Korea’s formal adoption of the “two hostile states” framework and March 2026 constitutional amendments, which recognize South Korea as a separate bordering nation, eliminate unification language, and drop territorial claims over the peninsula, have anchored trader expectations that Pyongyang will not launch an offensive before 2027. These changes explicitly signal a policy of assurance against unprovoked attack while prioritizing nuclear deterrence, longer-range missile modernization, and security cooperation with Russia. Routine ballistic-missile tests and artillery deployments continue, yet they occur without the large-scale mobilization, forward positioning, or command changes that historically precede major offensives. South Korea’s alliance with the United States, combined with ongoing diplomatic overtures from Seoul and potential U.S.–North Korea engagement, further reinforces the prevailing view that deterrence remains intact and that any shift toward invasion would require visible, sustained preparations not currently evident.