Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 25 centers on modest model spread among ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office runs, with ensemble means clustering near 12–13 °C. North Sea marine air advection, possible nocturnal cloud cover, and weak pressure gradients are limiting radiative cooling and keeping the range tight. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows of 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below average. Traders price the closest bins highest because resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official KNMI stations, where small shifts in timing or boundary-layer mixing can swing the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh model updates expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these probabilities.