**Forecast consensus for Ankara on September 21, 2026, centers on a minimum temperature of 13–15 °C, consistent with the closely matched market probabilities (roughly 20 % each for 12 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C).** Official and model guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service, ECMWF, GFS, and Met Office indicate partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly or variable winds and negligible precipitation overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling under clear to scattered skies, with the lowest readings expected in the early morning hours before sunrise. Daytime highs are projected near 23–26 °C, supporting a diurnal range typical for Ankara’s continental climate in late September. The tight clustering of probabilities around 12–14 °C reflects genuine model and observational uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum. Key differentiating factors include small variations in forecast cloud cover (which reduces longwave radiative loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (light winds enhance cooling while stronger mixing limits it), and near-surface humidity/dew-point depression. Ensemble spreads in high-resolution models commonly produce 1–3 °C differences in minimum temperature for such benign synoptic regimes. Historical September minima in Ankara average around 14 °C, providing a climatological anchor that aligns with current guidance. No major synoptic shifts—such as cold-air advection or frontal passages—are expected before the 21st, keeping the focus on local radiative and boundary-layer processes. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of the 20th will be the primary catalysts for any further market movement.