Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 5°C low in Paris at 71% implied probability, driven by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning minimum near 5°C amid a polar air descent gripping Île-de-France. This unseasonal chill—well below May norms of 9–10°C—stems from northerly cold air advection, with persistent low cloud cover and scattered showers suppressing radiative cooling that could push temps to 4°C (38.6%). Over the past week, the cold spell intensified, dropping morning readings 3–5°C below average, but model uncertainty lingers within a ±1°C band. Hourly observations from the Paris-Montsouris station, the likely resolution source, will sharpen outcomes as the day unfolds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 15?
5°C 90.5%
4°C 11.6%
3°C 2.1%
-2°C or below <1%
$11,945 Обс.
$11,945 Обс.
-2°C or below
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
2%
4°C
12%
5°C
90%
5°C 90.5%
4°C 11.6%
3°C 2.1%
-2°C or below <1%
$11,945 Обс.
$11,945 Обс.
-2°C or below
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
2%
4°C
12%
5°C
90%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 5°C low in Paris at 71% implied probability, driven by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning minimum near 5°C amid a polar air descent gripping Île-de-France. This unseasonal chill—well below May norms of 9–10°C—stems from northerly cold air advection, with persistent low cloud cover and scattered showers suppressing radiative cooling that could push temps to 4°C (38.6%). Over the past week, the cold spell intensified, dropping morning readings 3–5°C below average, but model uncertainty lingers within a ±1°C band. Hourly observations from the Paris-Montsouris station, the likely resolution source, will sharpen outcomes as the day unfolds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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