Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 15°C high in Paris on May 16, reflecting the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in the 14-16°C range amid persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning stems from an unstable low-pressure system over Île-de-France since May 11, delivering cooler northerly flows and below-average insolation after early May's warmer spell—echoing the climatological "Saints de Glace" dip when mid-May highs typically average 18-19°C at Orly Airport but often undershoot. Model spreads indicate genuine uncertainty around exact integer thresholds, with AROME high-resolution runs potentially refining odds; monitor evening updates from Météo-France for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on May 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 16?
15°C 38%
16°C 24%
14°C 22%
17°C 6%
$12,207 Обс.
$12,207 Обс.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
22%
15°C
38%
16°C
24%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 38%
16°C 24%
14°C 22%
17°C 6%
$12,207 Обс.
$12,207 Обс.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
22%
15°C
38%
16°C
24%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 15°C high in Paris on May 16, reflecting the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in the 14-16°C range amid persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning stems from an unstable low-pressure system over Île-de-France since May 11, delivering cooler northerly flows and below-average insolation after early May's warmer spell—echoing the climatological "Saints de Glace" dip when mid-May highs typically average 18-19°C at Orly Airport but often undershoot. Model spreads indicate genuine uncertainty around exact integer thresholds, with AROME high-resolution runs potentially refining odds; monitor evening updates from Météo-France for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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