Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest forecast models from AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly sunny skies with light winds. This aligns with recent observational data, including a 30°C high on May 15 amid persistent dry, high-pressure conditions typical of Mexico City's late dry season at 2,240-meter elevation, where May climatological averages exceed 25°C. Model ensembles show low precipitation risk (under 25%), supporting sustained warming. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or unmodeled convective activity triggering afternoon showers that cap temperatures below 24°C, though such shifts are rare this time of year; final confirmation awaits official SMN observations post-midnight May 17.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.8%
23°C <1%
19°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
НОВЕ
$28,328 Обс.
НОВЕ
$28,328 Обс.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 99.8%
23°C <1%
19°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
НОВЕ
$28,328 Обс.
НОВЕ
$28,328 Обс.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$1,650 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$1,730 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$1,134 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$1,515 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$1,266 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$1,661 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$1,668 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$9,095 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$1,213 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$2,367 Обс.
<1%
24°C or higher
$5,028 Обс.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest forecast models from AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly sunny skies with light winds. This aligns with recent observational data, including a 30°C high on May 15 amid persistent dry, high-pressure conditions typical of Mexico City's late dry season at 2,240-meter elevation, where May climatological averages exceed 25°C. Model ensembles show low precipitation risk (under 25%), supporting sustained warming. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or unmodeled convective activity triggering afternoon showers that cap temperatures below 24°C, though such shifts are rare this time of year; final confirmation awaits official SMN observations post-midnight May 17.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Обсяг
$28,328Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest forecast models from AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly sunny skies with light winds. This aligns with recent observational data, including a 30°C high on May 15 amid persistent dry, high-pressure conditions typical of Mexico City's late dry season at 2,240-meter elevation, where May climatological averages exceed 25°C. Model ensembles show low precipitation risk (under 25%), supporting sustained warming. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or unmodeled convective activity triggering afternoon showers that cap temperatures below 24°C, though such shifts are rare this time of year; final confirmation awaits official SMN observations post-midnight May 17.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,328Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest forecast models from AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly sunny skies with light winds. This aligns with recent observational data, including a 30°C high on May 15 amid persistent dry, high-pressure conditions typical of Mexico City's late dry season at 2,240-meter elevation, where May climatological averages exceed 25°C. Model ensembles show low precipitation risk (under 25%), supporting sustained warming. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or unmodeled convective activity triggering afternoon showers that cap temperatures below 24°C, though such shifts are rare this time of year; final confirmation awaits official SMN observations post-midnight May 17.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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