Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers have positioned Moscow’s maximum temperature on May 17 in the mid-20s Celsius as the most probable range, matching the market’s concentration of implied probability at 25 °C (35.0 %), 24 °C (24.0 %), and 26 °C (21.9 %). A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Russia is expected to suppress cloud formation and allow strong daytime solar heating, elevating surface temperatures several degrees above the May climatological average of roughly 18 °C. Model consensus remains tight within this window, though small variations in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed could still shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs issued overnight will refine the final guidance ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
25°C 35%
24°C 25%
26°C 19.6%
27°C 10.3%
$10,529 Обс.
$10,529 Обс.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
10%
24°C
25%
25°C
35%
26°C
25%
27°C
10%
28°C or higher
3%
25°C 35%
24°C 25%
26°C 19.6%
27°C 10.3%
$10,529 Обс.
$10,529 Обс.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
10%
24°C
25%
25°C
35%
26°C
25%
27°C
10%
28°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers have positioned Moscow’s maximum temperature on May 17 in the mid-20s Celsius as the most probable range, matching the market’s concentration of implied probability at 25 °C (35.0 %), 24 °C (24.0 %), and 26 °C (21.9 %). A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Russia is expected to suppress cloud formation and allow strong daytime solar heating, elevating surface temperatures several degrees above the May climatological average of roughly 18 °C. Model consensus remains tight within this window, though small variations in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed could still shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs issued overnight will refine the final guidance ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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