Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
13°C 39%
14°C 35%
15°C 15%
12°C or below 11.8%
НОВЕ
$19,635 Обс.
НОВЕ
$19,635 Обс.
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
12%
13°C
39%
14°C
35%
15°C
15%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 39%
14°C 35%
15°C 15%
12°C or below 11.8%
НОВЕ
$19,635 Обс.
НОВЕ
$19,635 Обс.
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
$2,246 Обс.
12%
13°C
$2,109 Обс.
39%
14°C
$2,036 Обс.
35%
15°C
$2,156 Обс.
15%
16°C
$1,932 Обс.
2%
17°C
$1,019 Обс.
1%
18°C
$885 Обс.
1%
19°C
$1,868 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$2,098 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$1,204 Обс.
<1%
22°C or higher
$2,130 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$19,635Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$19,635Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated in the past 24 hours, have driven trader consensus toward a Warsaw high temperature of 13–15°C on May 16, with 14°C (38.5% implied probability) edging 13°C (36.5%) amid persistent low cloud cover and cool northerly airflow capping peaks below mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This reflects a synoptic shift from May 14's near-18°C warmth to unsettled polar maritime air under a low-pressure system, as per IMGW guidance forecasting scattered showers, thunderstorms, and a 16°C maximum—but global models show tighter clustering at cooler values due to overcast skies. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread on cloud thickness and shower timing, with northerly gusts potentially suppressing 15°C+ outcomes; IMGW hourly updates and observations through evening could refine this before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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