Recent KNMI and ECMWF guidance positions 14°C as the leading outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature tomorrow because moderate northwest winds and widespread low cloud are expected to limit daytime heating well below the May climatological average of 16–18°C. Ensemble runs show only brief afternoon breaks in overcast skies, with showers suppressing the peak near 13–15°C, consistent with observed morning temperatures in the 8–11°C range and the current setup of cool maritime air. Minor model spread around sunshine duration supports the secondary 15°C bracket while keeping higher outcomes below 5% probability. Updated midday observations from Schiphol and the next model cycle will determine whether any clearing allows a brief spike toward 15°C or holds the high at 14°C.