Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the most probable overnight low in Paris near 11°C on May 20, reflecting a modest moderation from the cool northerly flow that produced 5–9°C readings earlier in the week. Persistent maritime air and variable cloud cover are limiting strong radiational cooling, while daytime heating remains capped near 16–18°C under the same pattern. Historical May climatology centers overnight lows around 10°C, so the tightly clustered probabilities across the 10–14°C buckets capture genuine model spread on boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning. Fresh guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the ridge strengthens enough to push the low toward 13°C or allows a brief dip below 10°C.