Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 17?
64°F or higher 99.8%
58-59°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
45°F or below
<1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64°F or higher
100%
64°F or higher 99.8%
58-59°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
45°F or below
$586 Обс.
<1%
46-47°F
$356 Обс.
1%
48-49°F
$481 Обс.
1%
50-51°F
$481 Обс.
1%
52-53°F
$481 Обс.
1%
54-55°F
$481 Обс.
1%
56-57°F
$481 Обс.
1%
58-59°F
$481 Обс.
1%
60-61°F
$660 Обс.
<1%
62-63°F
$638 Обс.
<1%
64°F or higher
$867 Обс.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,993Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$5,993Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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