Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
21°C 26%
20°C 24%
22°C 22%
19°C 21%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
20%
17°C
6%
18°C
10%
19°C
21%
20°C
24%
21°C
26%
22°C
22%
23°C
15%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 26%
20°C 24%
22°C 22%
19°C 21%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
$18 Обс.
20%
17°C
$0 Обс.
6%
18°C
$0 Обс.
10%
19°C
$0 Обс.
21%
20°C
$0 Обс.
24%
21°C
$0 Обс.
26%
22°C
$0 Обс.
22%
23°C
$0 Обс.
15%
24°C
$0 Обс.
5%
25°C
$76 Обс.
5%
26°C or higher
$18 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$112Дата завершення
May 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$112Дата завершення
May 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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