Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 94%
18°C 8%
19°C 7.0%
17°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
8%
19°C
7%
20°C
94%
20°C 94%
18°C 8%
19°C 7.0%
17°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
$961 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$882 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$812 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$824 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$498 Обс.
8%
19°C
$472 Обс.
7%
20°C
$525 Обс.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,043Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$9,043Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання