Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment of forecast models projecting Shanghai's May 16 overnight low near 18–19°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing persistent overcast skies and light southeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling in the nocturnal boundary layer. These conditions, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect, elevate minimums above the mid-May climatological average of about 17°C, where historical lows rarely dip below 16°C or exceed 21°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloud thickness—thicker cover favors 19°C by trapping heat, while intermittent clearing could allow a drop to 18°C—amid muggy dew points around 18°C. Hourly observations from official stations like Xujiahui will resolve the market within 24 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
19°C 32%
18°C 24%
20°C 17%
17°C 10%
$10,535 Обс.
$10,535 Обс.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
10%
18°C
30%
19°C
32%
20°C
18%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 32%
18°C 24%
20°C 17%
17°C 10%
$10,535 Обс.
$10,535 Обс.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$2,870 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$2,750 Обс.
1%
16°C
$757 Обс.
2%
17°C
$1,038 Обс.
10%
18°C
$128 Обс.
30%
19°C
$137 Обс.
32%
20°C
$42 Обс.
18%
21°C
$20 Обс.
3%
22°C
$248 Обс.
1%
23°C
$666 Обс.
<1%
24°C or higher
$1,879 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment of forecast models projecting Shanghai's May 16 overnight low near 18–19°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing persistent overcast skies and light southeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling in the nocturnal boundary layer. These conditions, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect, elevate minimums above the mid-May climatological average of about 17°C, where historical lows rarely dip below 16°C or exceed 21°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloud thickness—thicker cover favors 19°C by trapping heat, while intermittent clearing could allow a drop to 18°C—amid muggy dew points around 18°C. Hourly observations from official stations like Xujiahui will resolve the market within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,535Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment of forecast models projecting Shanghai's May 16 overnight low near 18–19°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing persistent overcast skies and light southeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling in the nocturnal boundary layer. These conditions, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect, elevate minimums above the mid-May climatological average of about 17°C, where historical lows rarely dip below 16°C or exceed 21°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloud thickness—thicker cover favors 19°C by trapping heat, while intermittent clearing could allow a drop to 18°C—amid muggy dew points around 18°C. Hourly observations from official stations like Xujiahui will resolve the market within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$10,535Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment of forecast models projecting Shanghai's May 16 overnight low near 18–19°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing persistent overcast skies and light southeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling in the nocturnal boundary layer. These conditions, combined with Shanghai's urban heat island effect, elevate minimums above the mid-May climatological average of about 17°C, where historical lows rarely dip below 16°C or exceed 21°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloud thickness—thicker cover favors 19°C by trapping heat, while intermittent clearing could allow a drop to 18°C—amid muggy dew points around 18°C. Hourly observations from official stations like Xujiahui will resolve the market within 24 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання