Numerical weather prediction models from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge on an overnight low of 18–19°C in Shanghai for May 17, establishing the 19°C outcome as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical station data show typical minima clustering between 17°C and 21°C under neutral spring conditions influenced by East Asian monsoon moisture and variable sea-breeze advection. A persistent high-pressure ridge could support the adjacent 20°C bin, while any increase in boundary-layer cloud cover or weak trough passage might favor 18°C. Traders are monitoring the next China Meteorological Administration and updated global model runs for shifts in wind patterns or humidity that could narrow the tight 18–20°C spread before official observations resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 52%
18°C 32%
20°C 13%
17°C 4.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
32%
19°C
66%
20°C
24%
21°C
4%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 52%
18°C 32%
20°C 13%
17°C 4.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$549 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$397 Обс.
1%
16°C
$95 Обс.
1%
17°C
$142 Обс.
4%
18°C
$78 Обс.
32%
19°C
$151 Обс.
66%
20°C
$103 Обс.
24%
21°C
$250 Обс.
4%
22°C
$101 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$302 Обс.
<1%
24°C or higher
$710 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge on an overnight low of 18–19°C in Shanghai for May 17, establishing the 19°C outcome as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical station data show typical minima clustering between 17°C and 21°C under neutral spring conditions influenced by East Asian monsoon moisture and variable sea-breeze advection. A persistent high-pressure ridge could support the adjacent 20°C bin, while any increase in boundary-layer cloud cover or weak trough passage might favor 18°C. Traders are monitoring the next China Meteorological Administration and updated global model runs for shifts in wind patterns or humidity that could narrow the tight 18–20°C spread before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,878Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge on an overnight low of 18–19°C in Shanghai for May 17, establishing the 19°C outcome as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical station data show typical minima clustering between 17°C and 21°C under neutral spring conditions influenced by East Asian monsoon moisture and variable sea-breeze advection. A persistent high-pressure ridge could support the adjacent 20°C bin, while any increase in boundary-layer cloud cover or weak trough passage might favor 18°C. Traders are monitoring the next China Meteorological Administration and updated global model runs for shifts in wind patterns or humidity that could narrow the tight 18–20°C spread before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$2,878Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDNumerical weather prediction models from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge on an overnight low of 18–19°C in Shanghai for May 17, establishing the 19°C outcome as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical station data show typical minima clustering between 17°C and 21°C under neutral spring conditions influenced by East Asian monsoon moisture and variable sea-breeze advection. A persistent high-pressure ridge could support the adjacent 20°C bin, while any increase in boundary-layer cloud cover or weak trough passage might favor 18°C. Traders are monitoring the next China Meteorological Administration and updated global model runs for shifts in wind patterns or humidity that could narrow the tight 18–20°C spread before official observations resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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