Recent USGS monitoring of global seismicity shows moderate activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including a confirmed M6.0 event near Nena, Philippines, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Tonga and Solomon Islands regions. These developments have anchored trader consensus around six or seven total events for the May 11–17 window, with the two leading outcomes separated by just 0.5 percentage points. Aftershock sequences from larger shocks and ongoing strain release at plate boundaries remain the primary variables that could push the final count higher or leave it at six, while background rates of M5.0–5.9 events offshore continue at typical levels without major deviations. Resolution depends on the agency’s complete catalog by the May 17 close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 38%
7 30.5%
8 11.0%
>9 6.9%
$112,194 Обс.
$112,194 Обс.
May 17, 2026
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
31%
7
31%
8
15%
9
6%
>9
7%
6 38%
7 30.5%
8 11.0%
>9 6.9%
$112,194 Обс.
$112,194 Обс.
May 17, 2026
≤3
$49,328 Обс.
1%
4
$19,210 Обс.
1%
5
$17,774 Обс.
1%
6
$1,415 Обс.
31%
7
$1,401 Обс.
31%
8
$3,965 Обс.
15%
9
$3,599 Обс.
6%
>9
$15,572 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring of global seismicity shows moderate activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including a confirmed M6.0 event near Nena, Philippines, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Tonga and Solomon Islands regions. These developments have anchored trader consensus around six or seven total events for the May 11–17 window, with the two leading outcomes separated by just 0.5 percentage points. Aftershock sequences from larger shocks and ongoing strain release at plate boundaries remain the primary variables that could push the final count higher or leave it at six, while background rates of M5.0–5.9 events offshore continue at typical levels without major deviations. Resolution depends on the agency’s complete catalog by the May 17 close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$112,194Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring of global seismicity shows moderate activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including a confirmed M6.0 event near Nena, Philippines, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Tonga and Solomon Islands regions. These developments have anchored trader consensus around six or seven total events for the May 11–17 window, with the two leading outcomes separated by just 0.5 percentage points. Aftershock sequences from larger shocks and ongoing strain release at plate boundaries remain the primary variables that could push the final count higher or leave it at six, while background rates of M5.0–5.9 events offshore continue at typical levels without major deviations. Resolution depends on the agency’s complete catalog by the May 17 close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$112,194Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring of global seismicity shows moderate activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including a confirmed M6.0 event near Nena, Philippines, and additional M5.5+ shocks in the Tonga and Solomon Islands regions. These developments have anchored trader consensus around six or seven total events for the May 11–17 window, with the two leading outcomes separated by just 0.5 percentage points. Aftershock sequences from larger shocks and ongoing strain release at plate boundaries remain the primary variables that could push the final count higher or leave it at six, while background rates of M5.0–5.9 events offshore continue at typical levels without major deviations. Resolution depends on the agency’s complete catalog by the May 17 close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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