SpaceX’s aggressive Falcon 9 reuse cadence and Starship flight-test window are the main drivers keeping trader consensus tightly split between 12 and 13 May launches. As of mid-month, eight confirmed missions have already lifted off from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, with four more Starlink and Globalstar flights plus the twelfth Starship test slated for the final two weeks. High booster turnaround rates, favorable launch azimuths for low-inclination Starlink planes, and minimal range conflicts at both sites support the current pace, yet variable Florida and California weather windows plus any last-minute payload or engine anomalies could trim the total by one. Historical data show SpaceX averaging 2.8 orbital launches per week in 2026, giving the market-implied odds a realistic spread around the 12–13 threshold while leaving room for an extra Starlink deployment if conditions align.